Moods Investments

About Moods

Moods is an online premier investment research and financial education company dedicated to empowering analysts and investors. It specializes in providing data-driven equity research, model portfolios, and customized financial analysis to retail and small institutional investors. The company aims to bridge the gap between institutional-quality research and the needs of individual investors and fund managers.

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Research & Analysis

We provide affordable and comprehensive investment research services designed to empower self-directed investors. Our insights help you make informed decisions and stay on track to achieve your long-term financial goals.

Education & Training

Our team of experienced analysts offers financial education and training workshops designed to enhance your analytical skills and investment knowledge, empowering you to make confident and informed investment decisions.

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Performance Overview

Moods Portfolio Performance Overview (Since Inception)

Key Performance Metrics

Period = May 2017 – October 2024 (~7.4 years)

Cumulative Return: 154.03% (May 2017 – Oct 2024)
The annualized return for the portfolio from May 2017 to October 2024 is approximately 13.39% per year.
The annualized return for the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPXTR) over the same period (May 2017 – October 2024) is approximately 11.10% per year.

Comparison:

Moods Portfolio 1: 13.39% per year
S&P 500 TR Index: 11.10% per year

Our portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 TR Index by approximately 2.29% annually over this period

Best Return: 26.12% (Jun 2020)
Worst Return: -12.81% (Aug 2019)
Max Drawdown: 28.54% (Jan 2018 – Oct 2019)
Sharpe Ratio: 0.62
Standard Deviation: 5.68%

Top Performers (% Contribution to Portfolio)

1211: 31.75%
BRK B: 18.14%
META: 17.67%

Bottom Performers (% Contribution to Portfolio)

BAC: -2.48%
GLIN: -2.47%
DB: -1.94%

Asset Allocation (%)

Equities: 80.15%
Cash: 13.81%
Fixed Income (Bonds): 6.05%

Disclosure: To test our analysis, we have this Model portfolio. The Directors have their personal capital invested in this portfolio. They might choose to invest a portion of the funds or hold some cash in their personal account. This ensures their financial interests stay closely aligned with the success of their investment analysis and model, while also giving them flexibility in managing their capital. Financial details remain undisclosed as our model operates as a close ended private investment fund, not accessible to public for investment.

Disclaimer: This is for educational and illustrative purposes only. Past performance of any investment portfolio is not indicative of future results. Investments inherently carry risks, including the potential loss of principal capital. Market conditions, economic factors, geopolitical events, and other variables may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from historical returns or expectations.

No representation or guarantee is made that any strategy will achieve its objectives, generate profits, or avoid losses. Investors should not rely solely on historical data or individual experiences when making decisions, as these do not ensure success in changing environments.

All investments involve speculative risks, and individuals should carefully assess their financial position, risk tolerance, and investment goals before committing capital. Investors need to consult a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel to evaluate suitability for their unique circumstances.

This performance overview is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.

Feb 3, 2025, Moods Investments Portfolio Performance Analysis FY 2024

Moods Investments Portfolio Performance Analysis FY 2024

Here is a detailed breakdown of Moods Investments Portfolio performance from January 1, 2024 – December 31, 2024:

Overall Performance and Strategy

The portfolio saw a strong 17.74% return in 2024. However, it underperformed the benchmark S&P 500’s total return of 25.0%, which was predominantly driven by the Magnificent 7 stocks in 2024. Despite this underperformance, it still suggests a successful year in terms of growth, primarily fuelled by a growth-focused strategy with a heavy allocation towards stocks (93%). However, this aggressive approach also involved some risks, which we’ll explain further.

Asset Allocation

Stocks: The vast majority of the portfolio was in stocks, which shows a high-growth, high-risk appetite. The portfolio included tech stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), and also Chinese stocks such as PetroChina and BYD Co Ltd. This diversification across sectors and geographies is good, but it also means being exposed to more variables.

Bonds: A small 6% allocation to bonds provided minimal income and stability, which was a conscious choice to prioritize growth over security.

Cash: A very small 1% in cash, which indicates that almost all available capital was deployed, with some potentially used for margin trading. This can be great when markets are up, but it also means less flexibility in a downturn, and this needs to be addressed.

Top Performers and Losers

Winners: The tech sector and Chinese stocks were the stars of the show. Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway performed exceptionally well. Similarly, PetroChina and BYD benefited from growth in the energy and EV sectors. These strong gains point to smart stock picks in those areas.
Losers: On the other hand, Petrobras (PBR.A) and Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) suffered significant losses. Danaos Corp (DAC) also underperformed. The losses in Petrobras were due to oil price volatility, and Danaos Corp was impacted by global trade slowdowns and fluctuating freight rates. It’s also worth noting that the Vanguard Long-Term Bonds ETF (BLV) declined, indicating that rising interest rates negatively impacted bond prices. These losses highlight the importance of monitoring commodity trends and interest rate changes.

Income and Returns

Capital Gains made up 62% of the total returns, confirming that growth stocks were the primary engine of performance.
Dividends were a significant 38% of the return, which added a nice layer of stability and cash flow. It’s good to see dividends playing a significant role in overall returns, especially given the potential tax benefits.

Risks and Challenges

Options Trading: Major losses in options trading, especially with Danaos Corp (DAC)options. This underscores the high-risk nature of derivatives and the need to limit speculative bets going forward due to increased volatility.
Forex Trading: Losses in foreign exchange trading with the Japanese Yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), and Hong Kong dollar (HKD) further show the dangers of currency market fluctuations.
Sector-Specific Risks: The portfolio faced significant risks in the energy sector with Petrobras and in bonds due to rising interest rates. These losses indicate a need for closer monitoring and potentially re-evaluating these assets.
Liquidity: The extremely low cash balance and use of margin highlight a significant liquidity issue. This could make the portfolio vulnerable during market downturns and needs to be addressed.

Moving Forward: Strategy & Risk Management

The portfolio strategy should address the risks that have been exposed by this year’s performance.

Limit High-Risk Trading: The strategy moving forward suggests reducing speculative bets in options and forex. It recommends keeping these trades to under 5% of the total portfolio to avoid significant losses.
Rebalance Bonds: We may consider switching to shorter-duration bonds to minimize the impact of interest rate changes.
Reassess Vulnerable Assets: Monitor and potentially reallocate or hedge against losses in oil and shipping stocks.
Increase Liquidity: Reduce margin use and hold more cash to ensure flexibility during market downturns.
Moderate Risk Approach: The aim is to balance growth with stability by reducing exposure to volatile assets, using stop-loss orders, and focusing on dividend-growth stocks.
Ideal Portfolio Mix: Aim to have 75% stocks, 15% bonds, and 10% cash to achieve a more balanced portfolio.

In Conclusion

The portfolio achieved excellent returns with strong growth from tech and energy stocks and significant income from dividends. However, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Significant losses in specific stocks and options trading and liquidity issues demonstrate that there were real risks that need to be addressed by the new strategy moving forward. The key is to balance the high-growth potential with risk management by limiting high-risk trades, diversifying the portfolio and maintaining a strong cash reserve.

References:

1. Key Performance Metrics

Starting Net Asset Value (NAV)
Ending Net Asset Value (NAV)
Total Change in NAV: +(-)
Time-Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR): +17.74%

This 17.74% return suggests strong performance in 2024. However, it underperformed against the benchmark S&P 500’s total return of 25% in 2024.

2. Asset Allocation & Holdings

Our portfolio is diversified across multiple asset classes

Here is the Portfolio Allocation Breakdown:

Stocks (93%) – Majority of our portfolio is in equities, indicating a growth-focused strategy.
Bonds (6%) – Small allocation, providing limited income & stability.
Cash (1%) – Very low liquidity, due to high capital deployment and margin usage.

The increase in stock value and new bond holdings suggest an aggressive investment strategy, possibly shifting toward income-generating securities.

3. Mark-to-Market Performance (Top Gains & Losses)

Top Performing Stocks (Unrealized Gains)

Symbol Performance

BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway) +16.30%

GOOGL (Alphabet) +20.60%

857 (PetroChina) +20.03%

1211 (BYD Co Ltd) +26.11%

Tech Stocks (GOOGL, BRK.B) performed exceptionally well, suggesting growth-oriented bets.
PetroChina & BYD (Chinese stocks) delivered strong returns, benefiting from energy & EV sector growth.

Biggest Losing Stocks (Unrealized Losses)

Symbol Performance

PBR.A (Petrobras ADR) -21.32%

DAC (Danaos Corp) -8.16%

GSBD (Goldman Sachs BDC) -21.01%

BLV (Bond ETF – Vanguard Long-Term Bonds) -6.14%

Petrobras (PBR.A) suffered significant losses, Due to oil price volatility.
Danaos (DAC), a shipping company, experienced losses, due to global trade slowdowns and freight rate fluctuations.
Bond ETF (BLV) loss indicates rising interest rates negatively impacted bond prices.

4. Dividends & Interest Income

Here is the Return Contribution Breakdown:

Capital Gains (62%) – The majority of our returns came from stock price appreciation.
Dividends (38%) – A significant portion came from dividend income, providing stability & cash flow.

Key Takeaways

Strong Growth & Dividends – Our portfolio is well-balanced between capital gains & income.
Sector Strength: Tech & energy stocks are driving returns.
Oil & Bond Risks – Petrobras & bond ETF losses suggest monitoring interest rates & commodity trends.
Liquidity Concern – Low cash reserves could impact flexibility.

Withholding Tax on Dividends: 15-30% depending on jurisdictions and markets

Our dividend-focused investments generated significant passive income, reducing risk and improving returns.

5. Options & Forex Performance

Equity & Index Options: – (Major loss on DAC options)
Forex Trading: – (Losses from JPY, CAD, and HKD transactions)

Options trading in DAC (Danaos Corp) led to a major loss highlighting high-risk exposure in derivatives.

6. Transaction Costs & Fees

Commissions: –
Transaction Fees: –
Other Fees: –

Our fees were relatively low, which helped optimize overall returns.

7. Key Takeaways:

Strong Portfolio Growth: +17.74% return, outperforming benchmarks.
Well-Diversified Holdings: Stocks across tech, energy, finance, and emerging markets.
Passive Income Strength: in dividends provided stability.
High-Risk Options Trading: Major losses in DAC options suggests we limiting derivative exposure due to volitility in the markets
Petrobras & Bond Losses: We have to Consider re-evaluating oil-sector risks and bond duration.
Cash Depletion: Ending cash balance was negative, indicating over-leverage and margin use which needs to be reduced

Moving forward Strategy:

We will reduce high-risk options trading by limiting speculative bets.
We will consider rebalancing bonds to lower-duration assets if rates rise.
Monitor oil & shipping stocks (PBR.A & DAC) for exit or averaging opportunities.
Ensure liquidity by avoiding excessive margin use.

Risk Exposure Breakdown

Major Risk Contributors:

Options Trading: – – High-risk derivatives exposure.
Petrobras (PBR.A): – – Oil sector volatility.
Bond ETF (BLV): – – Interest rate sensitivity.
Forex Trading: – – Currency market fluctuations.

Key Risk Insights:

High-Risk Trading: Options & forex trading contributed ~50% of total losses.
Sector-Specific Risks: Energy & bonds are the weakest areas.
Liquidity Concern: Heavy capital deployment increases exposure to market downturns.

Risk Management Strategy going forward

Limit Options Trading: Reduce speculative derivatives exposure.
Diversify Bonds: Shorter-duration bonds to minimize interest rate impact.
Reassess Energy Stocks: Consider hedging or reallocating oil-related assets.

Risk Mitigation Strategies:

Hedge against downturns (use put options, stop-loss orders, or inverse ETFs).
Reduce exposure to high-volatility assets (limit oil, forex, and speculative stocks).
Maintain cash reserves for flexibility during market corrections.

Moderate Risk Approach (Balanced Growth & Stability)

Limit Speculative Trades – Keep options & forex trading under 5% of total portfolio.
Dividend Growth Stocks – Invest in strong dividend payers (e.g. MO) for passive income.
Reduce Exposure to High-Volatility Assets – Trim holdings in DAC & PBR.A, which have shown large fluctuations.
Use Stop-Loss Orders – Set 10-15% trailing stop-losses on volatile stocks to limit downside risk.

Ideal Portfolio Mix:

75% Stocks (Blue-Chip, Dividend Growth, Tech)
15% Bonds (Corporate, Government)
10% Cash (F. Deposits & Treasuries)

Disclosure

This is for educational and illustrative purposes only. To test our analysis, we have this Model portfolio. The founders and Directors have their real capital invested in this Model portfolio. They might choose to invest a portion of the funds or hold some cash in their personal accounts. This ensures their interests stay closely aligned with the success of their investment analysis, while also giving them flexibility in managing their capital. Financial details remain undisclosed as our model operates as a closed-end private investment fund, not accessible to the general public for investment.

Disclaimer

Past performance of any investment portfolio is not indicative of future results. Investments inherently carry risks, including the potential loss of principal capital. Market conditions, economic factors, geopolitical events, and other variables may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from historical returns or expectations.

All investments involve speculative risks, and individuals should carefully assess their financial position, risk tolerance, and investment goals before committing capital. Consult a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel to evaluate suitability for your unique circumstances.

This performance overview is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.

Independent Research

Dec 7, 2025 VFC’s Distress and Discipline; Evaluating its Strong Brands and Path to Recovery.

Investment thesis

VF Corporation (VFC) presents a long-term value opportunity driven by its diversified brand portfolio including iconic brands such as The North Face, Timberland, Vans. Despite recent challenges, VFC has taken strong corrective measures through its Reinvest program, mainly focusing on brand revitalization, cost efficiency as well as repair of balance sheet. A $1.6 billion reduction in debt, coupled with improved operating discipline and leadership alignment demonstrates management’s commitment to restoring profitability.

The recovery of the Vans segment remains the key issue which is now supported by strategic investment in design, digital expansion as well as marketing. VFC’s other top brands like Timberland and The North Face continue to deliver solid margins because of brand strength. According to our estimate VFC has a fair value of $17 per share based on the industry average FCF multiple applied to its SOTP valuation. Therefore, the stock trading close to its fair value at $14 has very limited upside potential of 20% in the short term….

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Dec 9, 2025 Alcon Research, LLC signs $180 million Agreement to Acquire LENSAR, INC

Alcon Research, LLC entered into a definitive agreement to acquire LENSAR, INC on march 23, 2025 from North Run capital at a valuation of approximately $180 million. Alcon will purchase all the outstanding shares of LENSAR for $14.00 per share in cash along with an additional non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) that might deliver up to $2.75 per share in additional cash if certain post-closing milestones are achieved.

Additionally, the agreement also includes an $8.5 million termination fee payable by LENSAR if conditions are met. There is a commitment from both the companies and the deal is expected to move forward within the next 6 months…

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Dec 12, 2025 Herbalife’s Q3: Turnaround Accelerates with improved sales and strong free cash flow

Investment thesis

Herbalife (HLF) is showing early signs of operational recovery driven by North American segment returning back to growth, debt reduction, disciplined cost control, digital platform expansion as well as improving distributor engagement. While margins remain pressured by inflation, the company’s transformation programs as well as deleveraging trajectory create a path towards its fair value of $34 per share based on our free cash flow valuation.

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Dec 14, 2025 Amid challenges Kraft Heinz shows steady growth despite possible strategic split expected to be completed in 2026

Investment thesis

Kraft Heinz (KHC) released its Q3 earnings report on 29^th Oct 2025. According to the report the company is still going through challenges but has shown a bit of improvement in their net sales compared with the first two quarters of 2025. They have invested in R&D and marketing under Brand Growth System for the improvement and they have engaged the customers effectively for better execution. KHC’s strong cost savings and high productivity pays for the investments while keeping in line with the leverage. The company generated strong cash flow and cash return to its shareholders in Q3 2025. Despite strong FCF there wasn’t any major change noticed in debt reduction. The company believes they will focus more on two separate businesses for better shareholders returns and business profitability after the expected split in Q2, 2026…

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Dec 14, 2025 Special Situation : Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. possibly going Private

The founders of Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. announced a bid to take the company private on November 9, 2025. The deal was posed by the Chairman and CEO Thomas Priore who owns 58% of the company proposed a privatization offer at a price expected to range between $6 – $6.15 per share stating that the company is being undervalued by the market. The company is stable with a strong cash flow backing this special situation idea. The deal is still under authorized independent and disinterested director’s committee review. The bid is opposed by two activist investors, Buckley Capital & Steamboat Capital Partners. They argue that the offer undervalues the company and takes advantage of a mispricing of the common shares. One of these activist investors values the company at an estimated intrinsic value of $17 per share…

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Dec 31, 2025 Tesla, Inc: A Comprehensive Analysis of Growth, and Risk

Investment Thesis

Tesla Inc (TSLA) represents a unique hybrid between automotive manufacturing, clean-energy provider and emerging AI technology platforms. The company’s vertically integrated business model, global charging infrastructure and leadership in battery technology provides durable competitive advantages that are difficult for traditional automakers to replicate. Additionally, the company’s rapidly scaling in energy generation and storage segments adds diversification and long-term margin expansion potential, while Robotaxi ambition and self-full driving, Optimus robotics and Dojo AI computing position Tesla for software-like recurring revenues over the long term….

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Analysis & Commentary

Oct 20, 2023 Analyzing PetroChina and My Perspective on China as an Investment Strategy

Nov 1, 2023 Protecting Investments Amid Heightened Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Crises

Nov 16, 2023 Valuing Meta & its Insanely Powerful Algorithms & AI Moat

Nov 9, 2023 Potential Risks of Investing in Bitcoin and Opportunities in Blockchain Technology

Mar 19, 2024 ASA Gold Sued over Poison Pill by Saba Capital: An Arbitrage Opportunity to Buy at a Discount to NAV

Apr 13, 2025 Apple: Oversold on Tariff Fears, Undervalued on Fundamentals

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Moods Investment Research is an investment research and financial education company registered in Ontario, Canada. We do not operate as an investment advisory firm, which means we are not a registered broker, dealer, or investment fund.

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